Uncertainty analyses

Uncertainty analyses are a bespoke process, because you need to decide which input data should be correlated (e.g., the incidence rate for a single disease, across all age groups, sex, and ethnicity). To build data artifacts that contain 2000 draws for each input rate/value, run the following command:

make_artifacts uncertainty

Note

This can take a long time to complete, and generates data artifacts that are around 3 GB in size.

We have also provided a command that runs multiple simulations for a single model specification file, where each simulation uses a different draw from the data artifact. This script can be used as follows:

run_uncertainty_analysis --draws 2000 --spawn 16 modelA.yaml modelB.yaml [...]

This will run 2000 simulations for each of the model specifications (modelA.yaml, modelB.yaml, etc) and will simultaneously run 16 simulations at a time. Each simulation will produce distinct output files (modelA_mm_1.csv, modelA_mm_2.csv, etc).