Alternative BAU: Constant tobacco prevalence¶
We now consider the case where the prevalence of tobacco use in each cohort remains constant over time — in other words, the cessation rate is zero. As per the previous tutorial, the purpose here is to highlight how our assumptions about the BAU scenario can affect the predicted impact of an intervention.
The only change that we need to make to the simulation definition is:
Set the remission rate to zero.
This is done by adding the following configuration option:
configuration:
tobacco:
constant_prevalence: True
These simulations are already defined in the following files:
Tobacco eradication:
mslt_tobacco_maori_20-years_constant_erad.yamlmslt_tobacco_non-maori_20-years_constant_erad.yaml
Tobacco tax:
mslt_tobacco_maori_20-years_constant_tax.yamlmslt_tobacco_non-maori_20-years_constant_tax.yaml
Tobacco-free generation:
mslt_tobacco_maori_20-years_constant_tfg.yamlmslt_tobacco_non-maori_20-years_constant_tfg.yaml
Intervention comparison¶
If you run all of these simulations, you can then compare their effects (and how these differ to those obtained with the original BAU scenario), using the data analysis software of your choice.
As an example, here are some of the results obtained for non-Maori males aged 50-54 in 2011, for the tobacco eradication intervention:
Year of birth |
Sex |
Age |
Year |
Survivors |
BAU Survivors |
Population |
BAU Population |
ACMR |
BAU ACMR |
Probability of death |
BAU Probability of death |
Deaths |
BAU Deaths |
YLD rate |
BAU YLD rate |
Person years |
BAU Person years |
HALYs |
BAU HALYs |
LE |
BAU LE |
HALE |
BAU HALE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
… |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
1959 |
male |
52 |
2011 |
129,460.4 |
129,460.4 |
129,850.0 |
129,850.0 |
0.003 |
0.003 |
0.003 |
0.003 |
389.6 |
389.6 |
0.1122 |
0.1122 |
129,655.2 |
129,655.2 |
115,103.4 |
115,103.4 |
33.7 |
33.1 |
26.6 |
26.0 |
1959 |
male |
53 |
2012 |
129,047.3 |
129,047.0 |
129,460.4 |
129,460.4 |
0.0032 |
0.0032 |
0.0032 |
0.0032 |
413.2 |
413.5 |
0.1122 |
0.1122 |
129,253.9 |
129,253.7 |
114,750.0 |
114,746.9 |
32.8 |
32.2 |
25.7 |
25.2 |
1959 |
male |
54 |
2013 |
128,608.8 |
128,607.5 |
129,047.3 |
129,047.0 |
0.0034 |
0.0034 |
0.0034 |
0.0034 |
438.5 |
439.5 |
0.1122 |
0.1122 |
128,828.0 |
128,827.2 |
114,375.1 |
114,368.3 |
31.9 |
31.3 |
24.9 |
24.4 |
… |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
1959 |
male |
108 |
2067 |
169.8 |
136.4 |
273.6 |
220.7 |
0.4767 |
0.4811 |
0.3792 |
0.3819 |
103.7 |
84.3 |
0.352 |
0.3578 |
221.7 |
178.6 |
143.7 |
114.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1959 |
male |
109 |
2068 |
105.4 |
84.3 |
169.8 |
136.4 |
0.477 |
0.4811 |
0.3793 |
0.3819 |
64.4 |
52.1 |
0.3523 |
0.3578 |
137.6 |
110.4 |
89.1 |
70.9 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1959 |
male |
110 |
2069 |
65.4 |
52.1 |
105.4 |
84.3 |
0.4774 |
0.4812 |
0.3796 |
0.382 |
40.0 |
32.2 |
0.3526 |
0.3578 |
85.4 |
68.2 |
55.3 |
43.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
… |
Note that these results differ to those obtained with the original BAU scenario.